We’ve arguably got three locks in the race, with one (very
deservingly) way out in front. Melissa McCarthy’s not a lock, but she feels
like a safe choice. Meanwhile, Shailene Woodley might sit this one out to make
room for Janet McTeer. Although there’s uncertainty in this race, I wouldn’t
expect the unexpected (Sandra Bullock, Vanessa Redgrave, etc.) here.
The nominees will be…
Bérénice Bejo (The
Artist)
Jessica Chastain (The
Help)
Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
Octavia Spencer (The
Help)
Shailene Woodley (The
Descendants)
In it to win it:
Bejo, Chastain, and Spencer – Spencer obviously boasts more of a chance
than Bejo and Chastain thanks to her BFCA and Globe wins, but either of the
other two actresses could pull off an upset.
Locked and loaded: No
one aside from the above three.
If one of them gets
snubbed, it’s… Woodley – You can make the case that there’s more respect
for The Descendants than Bridesmaids; you can also argue that the
Academy’s more likely to go for the hot young breakout instead of the
television actress who’s finally made her way in the film world. However,
that’s not what precursors indicate in this particular instance. While Woodley
made the cut with the Globes, McCarthy scored with BAFTA and SAG; Thomas Horn’s
stunning BFCA win in the Young Actor/Actress category isn’t a particularly good
sign either…
If someone sneaks in,
it’s… Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)
– Many prefer this performance to Glenn Close’s leading turn, but will the
Academy nominate McTeer? It’s uncertain: her Globe and SAG mentions help her
cause, but one of the major contenders has to give up her seat.
Other Possibilities:
Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)
– Once considered a threat for the win, she’ll now be lucky to score as much as
a nomination. BAFTA didn’t even bother longlisting her.
Sandra Bullock (Extremely
Loud and Incredibly Close) – She hasn’t been scoring with the precursors,
but the Academy might admire the film and her performance in it more than
guilds have indicated.
Carey Mulligan (Shame)
– Michael Fassbender’s hogging the spotlight for this controversial drama, but
Mulligan’s the kind of actress that the Academy will surely nominate again
soon, right? She might have to wait for Baz Luhrmann’s The Great Gatsby next year.
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