2011 Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay (FINAL)

With three perceived locks and two arguably open spots, this race could lend way for a nice shocker nominee or two. One wonders if something could dethrone The Descendants as the frontrunner. Moneyball seems like the obvious choice, but what about The Help?

The nominees will be…

Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne, and Jim Rash (The Descendants)

John Logan (Hugo)

Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)

Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian (Moneyball)

Tate Taylor (The Help)

In it to win it: The Descendants, The Help, and Moneyball – The first boasts frontrunner status; the third seems like an easy alternative; and the one in the middle, while it appears to be a trifle, could surprise for an upset, especially if screenwriter Tate Taylor also makes the Director race.

Locked and loaded: Nobody, save for the aforementioned frontrunners.

If one of them gets snubbed, it’s… Hugo – Despite the glowing buzz for the film, it’s more of a directing effort than a writing one; methinks the writing branch of AMPAS might catch on.

If a script sneaks in, it’s… George Clooney, Grant Heslov, and Beau Willimon (The Ides of March) – We can likely attribute the Globe attention to an overload of love for Clooney, but what about that BAFTA attention?

Other Possibilities:

Eric Roth (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) – It tugs the heartstrings; a last-minute addition to the fray?

Steven Zaillian (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) – How many in the writing branch will go for Zaillian’s fringe effort over his co-writing with Sorkin?

Richard Curtis and Lee Hall (War Horse) – Eh, you never know?