Monday, January 23, 2012

2011 Oscar Predictions: Best Director (FINAL)



We’ve basically got four “sure things” and an open spot that could go to a legendary auteur, a prestige director with his (assumed) first-ever Oscar flop, a fringe filmmaker who’s finally considered Academy-friendly, an unknown director of an acclaimed moneymaker, the A-list director of a general disappointment, or the guy who won Director at Cannes.

In other words, expect the unexpected.

The nominees will be…

Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
Michel Hazanvicius (The Artist)
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
Martin Scorsese (Hugo)

In it to win it: Hazanavicius – He feels like the only nominee who can truly pull off a win.

Locked and loaded: Payne and Scorsese – The former *might* be something of a threat, but I don’t feel that there’s enough passion behind Hugo for Marty to be a threat this time around, though his Globe win indicates that he’s likely for a nod here (despite the fact that he won after nominating ballots were due, therefore not directly affecting his chances of a nomination). Though Allen’s likely, I don’t see him as a full-fledged lock.

If one of them gets snubbed, it’s… Malick – It feels a bit peculiar just calling him for the nomination since many of the bigger precursors ignored him, but with just four directors who seem assured for Director bids, there’s tons of room for a surprise or two

If someone sneaks in, it’s… Tate Taylor (The Help) – It’s tempting for me to throw him into the fray, but I’m not so sure that the directors’ branch nominates the newcomer of this drama, one for which the directing isn’t often noted, than auteur Malick. Still, he’s the likely replacement should any of my predicted five not make the cut

Other Possibilities:
David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) – His DGA nomination says something, and even if he doesn’t make the cut, the movie’s very likely for a spot in the Picture race.

Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) – While I’m not fully convinced that the film will receive any nomination love, I’m not ready to give up on its Oscar hopes either. Daldry’s never been left off the shortlist, but I guess there’s a first time for everything…

Nicolas Winding Refn (Drive) – Does a strong showing with critics groups indicate a surprise nomination for Director?

Steven Spielberg (War Horse) – Snubbed by most every precursor group, the movie still has a formidable shot at scoring a Picture bid.

Bennett Miller (Moneyball) – I’m just throwing him out there as a possibility, but there’s no doubt that some in the Academy want to see Miller make the cut for this baseball drama.

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