2011 Oscar Predictions: The Island of Misfit Toys (Animated, Documentary, and Foreign Language; FINAL)

For the last two years, an animated feature made its way into the Best Picture race under the renewed list of ten nominees. However, we won’t be so fortunate as to see an Island of Misfit Toys flick (animated, documentary, and foreign language films) nominated this year.

All three types of films can compete in the big race, but so seldom does something of that nature happen. And why is that?

These methods of filmmaking aren’t taken seriously: animation is seen as “just for kids,” even with adult-oriented animation like TV’s Family Guy and South Park playing on millions of television sets week after week; documentaries are viewed as boring, despite the fact that the very first films were, in the most basic sense, documentaries, without which filmmaking today wouldn’t be the same; and foreign language films… well, people don’t feel like reading subtitles.

I won’t pretend that I’m fully innocent in this regard. While it’s easy to check out animation because it’s usually targeted at mainstream moviegoers, and I don’t live in a major market. However, as someone who loves cinema and all of the possibilities therein, shouldn’t I be seeking out more diverse films that go about storytelling in a way that I’m not always used to?

But enough with my babble. You’re here to see what I’m predicting for the Oscars, not to read a haphazardly written rant about taking all methods of moviemaking seriously. Check out my thoughts below.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE– Aside from Rango, my beloved Winnie the Pooh, and – if it counts – The Adventures of Tintin, this was a dud year for animated films. Tintin won the Golden Globe, but that’ll only help if it makes the cut at all… it’s probably sitting comfortably at number two or three, so I wouldn’t predict against it.

The nominees will be…

The Adventures of Tintin

Chico and Rita

Puss in Boots

Rango

Winnie the Pooh

In it to win it: Rango – It’s the only assured nominee.

Locked and loaded: See above.

If one of them gets snubbed, it’s… Winnie the Pooh – I’m still delusional in hoping that the silly old bear gets nominated, but Animated Feature’s an up-in-the-air race in regards to the nominees.

If a film sneaks in, it’s… Arthur Christmas – It performed well and received several nominations… this wouldn’t be surprising at all

Other Eligible Films (listed in order of nomination likelihood):

Cars 2

Kung Fu Panda 2

Rio

Happy Feet Two

A Cat in Paris

Alois Nebel

Gnomeo and Juliet

Wrinkles

Mars Need Moms

Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked

Hoodwinked, Too: Hood vs. Evil

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE – Such a difficult race to interpret, with only one film that seems fully assured for nomination love… then again, Waiting for “Superman” should have taught us something about that. Not helping is that many eligible films boast very interesting subject matter.

The nominees will be…

Bill Cunningham New York

Buck

Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

Pina

Project Nim

In it to win it: Project Nim and Pina

Locked and loaded: The above features.

If one of them gets snubbed, it’s… Bill Cunningham New York

If a documentary sneaks in, it’s… Hell and Back Again

Other Eligible Documentaries (listed in order of perceived nomination likelihood):

We Were Here

The Loving Story

Sing Your Song

Undefeated

Semper Fi: Always Faithful

Jane’s Journey

If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front                               

Under Fire: Journalists in Combat

Battle for Brooklyn

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE – There’s an obvious frontrunner in Iran’s A Separation, but isn’t the German documentary Pina a viable threat?

The nominees will be…

Canada (Monsieur Lazhar)

Germany (Pina)

Iran (A Separation)

Israel (Footnote)

Poland (In Darkness)

In it to win it: A Separation and Pina – The Iranian entry’s obviously in the lead, but if Germany’s Pina finds itself with Foreign Language *and* Documentary nominations, couldn’t it theoretically pull off an upset win?

Locked and loaded: The above two.

If one of them gets snubbed, it’s… Monsieur Lazhar

If a film sneaks in, it’s… Morocco (Omar Killed Me)

Other Eligible Films

Belgium (Bullhead)

Denmark (Superclásico)

Taiwan (Warriors of the Rainbow: Seediq Bale)