Tomorrow’s nomination day! In the wee hours of the morning, AMPAS President Tom Sherak and Oscar nominee Jennifer Lawrence will reveal the major Oscar nominations, and while AMPAS will announce many of the following categories via press release, they’re still of major importance, as they can help us determine which films have broad support and which ones don’t.
Perhaps more importantly, though, the crafts are a hugely important part of filmmaking. Acting performances, unwavering directors, and tight scripts are essentials, but what if the set decoration’s all wrong? What if the time period and costumes don’t match up? What if an exuberant score accompanies a dark film like The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo?
On that note, here’s what I believe will happen with the crafts and music nominations tomorrow.
BEST ART DIRECTION – Can anything take down Hugo here?
The nominees will be…
Laurence Bennett, Austin Buchinsky, and Robert Gould (The Artist)
Stuart Craig and Stephenie McMillan (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2)
Maria Djurkovic (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Dante Ferretti (Hugo)
Rena DeAngelo and Mark Ricker (The Help)
In it to win it: Hugo… and maybe The Artist
Locked and loaded: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2, which might actually pull off an upset win
If one of them gets snubbed, it’s… Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy – This has more to do with the security of the other four films than a lack of faith in this one.
If a set decorator/production designer gets in, it’ll be… Jack Fisk (The Tree of Life) – It’s a shame that his expert work might not reap an Oscar bid, but Fisk is on the cusp of making the cut.
Other Possibilities:
Donald Graham Burt (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) – Don’t knock the film’s guild support.
Rick Heinrichs (Captain America: The First Avenger) – There’re lots of fun set choices in this flick.
Rick Carter (War Horse) – War Horse isn’t a lock for an Art Direction nomination; those rumors about 2012 might be true…
Anne Seibel (Midnight in Paris) – It’s lavishly decorated, and this is Woody Allen’s most loved film in roughly two decades.
Donal Woods and Judy Farr (My Week with Marilyn) – Much of it takes place on a costume-y movie set.
Jack Fisk (Water for Elephants) – The Tree of Life serves as Fisk’s best bet, but if the art direction branch is feeling more flamboyant…
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – What a strong race this year! Here’s hoping that Emmanuel Lubezki wins over Robert Richardson, though both DPs would make for very deserving winners.
The nominees will be…
Jeff Cronenweth (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Janusz Kaminski (War Horse)
Emmanuel Lubezki (The Tree of Life)
Robert Richardson (Hugo)
Guillaume Schiffman (The Artist)
In it to win it: All of the films feel like huge threats, but Hugo likely wins, though a win for its closest rival The Tree of Life would be far more deserved.
Locked and loaded: The Artist – Black and white = brilliant cinematography (not always, but that’s how Oscar thinks)
If one of them gets snubbed, it’s… The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – War Horse isn’t completely safe, but Kaminski’s work presents itself far more obviously than Cronenweth’s does.
If a cinematographer sneaks in, it’s… Eduardo Serra (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2) – The final installment of the ever-popular franchise boasts incredible cinematography, but will AMPAS give it credit?
Other Possibilities:
Hoyt van Hoytema (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy) – The chilly cinematography of this British thriller could easily make the cut. For what it’s worth, it’s the only thing about the film I consider even moderately interesting.
Chris Menges (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) – Menges does some phenomenal camerawork that’d be a lock if the film had more hype, but he could still pull off a nomination.
Newton Thomas Sigel (Drive) – From what I understand, it’s a visually driven feature, and if it’s loved enough, a nod here isn’t out of the realm of possibility
BEST COSTUME DESIGN – Just copy/paste the Costume Designers Guild nods for Period Film sans W.E., replace that with My Week with Marilyn, and you’ve (probably) got the Costume Design nominees.
The nominees will be…
Mark Bridges (The Artist)
Sharen Davis (The Help)
Michael O’Connor (Jane Eyre)
Sandy Powell (Hugo)
Jill Taylor (My Week with Marilyn)
In it to win it: Nothing sticks out as “the one to beat” really, but I’d imagine that it’s between The Artist and Hugo
Locked and loaded: To be honest, no film’s invulnerable…
If one of them gets snubbed, it’s… Jane Eyre – The costuming for the film is nothing short of incredible, but it’s possible that the film didn’t get enough exposure.
If a costumer sneaks in, it’s… Arianne Phillips (W.E.) – It’s not possible for Madonna to repeat her Globe win for Original Song since “Masterpiece” isn’t eligible for Oscar, but her film, however poorly received it might be, could still contend in the Costume Design race.
Other Possibilities:
Leesa Evans and Christine Wada (Bridesmaids) – There’s more costuming work to be done in this boisterous comedy than might be expected; don’t be shocked if the costuming branch takes notice.
Jacqueline West (Water for Elephants) – It’s not a particularly terrific film, but it boasts some excellent costume work.
Joanna Johnston (War Horse) – If the film were guaranteed lots of Oscar love, Johnston would easily join the fray, but the mixed reception has me unsure.
Alexandra Byrne (Thor) – She’s won before and contended in three other races. Those were for much more Oscar-friendly fare, sure, but she might surprise.
Jany Temime (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2) – She worked on every Harry Potter film since The Prisoner of Azkaban; there might be some overdue love?
BEST FILM EDITING – With three films vying for a Best Picture win and even more films likely to snag Editing nods, predicting this race has been nightmarish.
The nominees will be…
Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Anne Sophie-Bion (The Artist)
Hank Corwin, etc. (The Tree of Life)
Michael Kahn (War Horse)
Thelma Schoonmaker (Hugo)
In it to win it: The Artist and Hugo – It’s likely smarter to bet on the former film, though Hugo could pull off an upset.
Locked and loaded: Nothing else, though I wouldn’t bet against The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo scoring some nomination love here.
If one of them gets snubbed, it’s… The Tree of Life – It’s more of a hunch prediction than anything else, but a film with less impressive editing, with less importance in how it meanders between shots (American Cinema Editors-nominated flicks The Descendants and Moneyball), could easily surpass it.
If an editor sneaks in, it’s… Kevin Tent (The Descendants) – We’re assuming that The Descendants is The Artist’s only real rival in the Picture race, so it’s hard to imagine the Film Editing race without Alexander Payne’s dramedy.
Other Possibilities:
Hughes Winborne (The Help) – At the same time, if we’re discussing The Help as a possible Picture upset, wouldn’t it get some love in Editing?
Christopher Tellefsen (Moneyball) – Don’t ask me why this film’s a contender, but its American Cinema Editors mention puts Tellefesen in the pack.
Matthew Newman (Drive) – Arguably the film’s best shot at a crafts nomination.
Alisa Lepselter (Midnight in Paris) – It wouldn’t be surprising to see this film pick up “can it upset for the win?” momentum, so can we expect Lepselter for a nomination?
Claire Simpson (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) – If you said this was all about me not wanting to give up on my initial instincts, you wouldn’t exactly be wrong.
BEST MAKEUP - I'm guessing that this is The Iron Lady's to lose.
The nominees will be...
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2
The Iron Lady
In it to win it: The Iron Lady
Locked and loaded: The above film.
If one of them gets snubbed, it's... Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
Other Eligible Films (listed in order of nomination likelihood):
Albert Nobbs
Hugo
The Artist
Anonymous
BEST MAKEUP - I'm guessing that this is The Iron Lady's to lose.
The nominees will be...
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2
The Iron Lady
In it to win it: The Iron Lady
Locked and loaded: The above film.
If one of them gets snubbed, it's... Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
Other Eligible Films (listed in order of nomination likelihood):
Albert Nobbs
Hugo
The Artist
Anonymous
BEST SOUND EDITING – I won’t like: I’m more or less making educated guesses here.
The nominees will be…
Hanna
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
In it to win it: Hugo and Super 8 – Hugo most likely wins, but Super 8 might put up quite the fight.
Locked and loaded: Transformers: Dark of the Moon
If one of them gets snubbed, it’s… Hanna – While it’s nabbed some attention for its aural aesthetics, Hanna’s an early-year release. Will the Academy really remember it?
If a film sneaks in, it’ll be… War Horse – It once seemed like it’d dominate the crafts races, but that’s not the case anymore.
Other Possibilities:
The Adventures of Tintin
Drive
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Moneyball
Thor
BEST SOUND MIXING – Despite the differences between Editing and Mixing, I’m still making educated guesses.
The nominees will be…
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
In it to win it: Hugo and Super 8 – J.J. Abrams’ sci-fi would make for a more deserving winner than Hugo, but I can’t complain too much about Marty’s ode to cinema winning crafts honors.
Locked and loaded: Transformers: Dark of the Moon
If one of them gets snubbed, it’s... The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – While I see the film getting nominated here, it’s not difficult to imagine it receiving the cold shoulder either.
If a film sneaks in, it’s… Moneyball – Bennett Miller’s admired drama earned Cinema Audio Society recognition for reasons I can’t fathom, but it’s well-liked enough to possibly sneak in.
Other Possibilities:
Hanna
The Artist
The Adventures of Tintin
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
War Horse
Drive
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS – The Academy’s whittled the race down to ten contenders, so we have a clearer look at what’s to come of this Super 8-free (yes, I’m bitter) category.
The nominees will be…
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
The Tree of Life
In it to win it: Rise of the Planet of the Apes – It’s disappointing that this likely wins over The Tree of Life, but there you have it.
Locked and loaded: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2 and Hugo
If one of them gets snubbed, it’s… Transformers: Dark of the Moon – The Academy had no trouble snubbing Michael Bay’s blockbuster series last time around, though a five-nominee race certainly helps.
If a film sneaks in, it’s… Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides – It’s one of the highest grossing films ever *bangs head into wall* and every other Pirates flick earned a spot here. It’ll be nominated somewhere…
Other Possibilities (literally, the only other four possibilities:(
Captain America: The First Avenger – The “Skinny Steve” effect impressed lots of people, and while I wasn’t necessarily one of them, I can’t deny that it’s a strong Visual Effects possibility.
X-Men: First Class – I’d love for this amazing film to be more of an awards contender…
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol – I loved this movie, but if this gets nominated, the Visual Effects category needs a serious renovation.
Real Steel – It wasn’t much of a hit, but could it find its way into the top five?
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – Let’s just say that we weren’t short on Oscar-friendly scores this year, though the atypical composition for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo might make the cut.
The nominees will be…
Ludovic Bource (The Artist)
Alexandre Desplat (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Howard Shore (Hugo)
John Williams (War Horse)
In it to win it: The Artist, Hugo, and War Horse – The first two contend for many other honors, while the last is a work of Oscar favorite John Williams.
Locked and loaded: The above three.
If one of them gets snubbed it’s… Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – I’m expecting Desplat to get some attention, but it might not be for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.
If a score sneaks in, it’s… Thomas Newman (The Help) – Wouldn’t that be a surprise?
Other Possibilities:
John Williams (The Adventures of Tintin)
Albert Iglesias (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Dario Marianelli (Jane Eyre)
Alexandre Desplat (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2)
Michael Giacchino (Super 8)
Abel Koreniowski (W.E.)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG – It’s a race crowded with many deserving contenders. Consequently, some terrific music just won’t make the cut, as it’s never a good thing to accuse any awards group – especially the music branch of AMPAS – of having great taste.
The nominees will be…
“Hello, Hello” from Gnomeo and Juliet
“Lay Your Head Down” from Albert Nobbs
“Life’s a Happy Song” from The Muppets
“The Living Proof” from The Help
“So Long” from Winnie the Pooh
In it to win it: “Life’s a Happy Song” and “The Living Proof” – The former’s fun, bouncy, and somewhat resembles a showtune; the latter’s dramatic and gripping. Either way, a Disney film would win the Oscar.
Locked and loaded: The above two tunes.
If one of them gets snubbed, it’s… “So Long” – I’m sure that I’m going off the deep end by predicting it in the first place; it hasn’t received loads of attention, so a “snub” wouldn’t be much of a surprise.
If a song sneaks in, it’s… “Pictures in My Head” from The Muppets – This should be my obvious choice for spot number five, but I can’t help but make some inane predictions every now and again.
Other Possibilities:
“Star Spangled Man” from Captain America: The First Avenger
“Man or Muppet” from The Muppets
“Coeur Volant” from Hugo
“Think You Can Wait” from Win Win
“The Keeper” from Machine Gun Preacher
I really really hope Desplat gets nom for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. I understand the issues prople have for this film, but still it's been unfairly bashed imho. I guess Desplat is the best (and maybe the only) hope...
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